Decision Analysis Services Ltd (DAS) delivered an innovative foresight study on the critical materials demand and supply dependencies for the UK nuclear sector through to 2050. The study was commissioned by the UK Government Department of Business and Trade (DBT) though the Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC) and focused on the key UK’s nuclear sub-technologies for energy transition.
The analysis DAS completed provides a unique assessment of projected demand for critical materials in the UK nuclear sector, and insight to support anticipatory long-term investment in the critical materials supply chain. DAS developed and refined the demand models internally, using the anticipated installation and retirement rates of nuclear reactors.
Our study compares projected demand models against a supply chain analysis. We applied a top-down Bill of Materials (BoM) approach, generating a value chain map of the nuclear component supply chain. We identified bottlenecks in the value chain, including capacity assessments at each stage of the supply chain, production concentration risks, comparison with future demand and geopolitical risks. The outputs of the study include a discussion on the supply issues, risks and potential mitigation strategies.
The report and its recommendations are being used to inform the UK government and UK nuclear industry of the supply risks and mitigation strategies associated with the UK’s critical material requirements for nuclear deployment and operation.
