The National Health Service (NHS) in England faces ongoing critical workforce shortages. Registered nurses account for the largest number of staff shortages across the sector. The UK Health Foundation commissioned DAS to develop a workforce supply model that could assess the nursing industry’s future workforce supply over five to twenty years.
DAS took a ‘whole system’ approach to the development of the model, considering evidence-based factors found to influence nurses’ career choices, as well as stakeholder feedback. The simulation mode we developed provided the Health Foundation with detailed workforce supply projections using different methods of attraction, retention, and development, over up to twenty years.
The model provided a tool to evaluate different long-term workforce supply strategies and could be used to enhance evidence based decision-making capabilities extensively. The model can also anticipate future nurse supply gaps and could be used to optimise workforce planning policies for long-term sustainability. The REAL Centre has used the model to support projections of future NHS workforce supply and demand in England, up to 2030/31.
Nurse supply model: overview – The Health Foundation
NHS workforce projections 2022 – The Health Foundation
